Frost & Sullivan’s recent analysis finds that the growing adoption of electric transit buses, driven by pro-green government policies, has enabled global sourcing and supply chain for alternate powertrain buses. The total electric bus market, which comprises hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), battery electric vehicles (BEVs), and fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), is projected to exceed 211,000 units by 2030 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.9%.
Saideep Sudhakar, Research Manager, Frost & Sullivan, said, “The increasing need to reduce emissions, especially in highly populated cities, the modernisation of bus fleets and attractive government incentive programs will drive the growth of electric buses in the intra-city passenger transport segment. Growing battery capacities coupled with aggressive development in charging infrastructure technologies is expected to increase the adoption rate of electric powertrains in the coach segment though it faces stiff competition from diesel and natural gas buses.
“Improving power density, efficiency and reducing cost are key areas of innovation in the market. Reducing the total cost of ownership of electric buses when compared to other powertrains and the additional push for the development of charging infrastructure will make electric buses a profitable option by 2030.”
China, Europe, and Latin America are expected to constitute more than 89% of the market by 2030.
Key regional insights and growth opportunities include:
- North America: BEVs will gain considerable market share by 2030 due to a combination of lower battery prices, attractive leasing models, and zero-emission bus deployment mandates.
- Latin America: The Zero Emission Bus Rapid-Deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) project will increase the uptake of battery electric powertrains in the transit bus market as older diesel buses are replaced across various cities.
- Europe: A clean vehicle directive and Joint Initiative for hydrogen Vehicles across Europe (JIVE) projects will propel the adoption of electric and fuel cell buses in the European Union. The entry of utility and energy major companies into electric charging infrastructure will boost the growth of fuelling infrastructure for electric vehicles.
- China: BEV buses are expected to see moderate growth between 2022 and 2025 due to reduced subsidies and purchase incentives. Lower battery prices and fast-charging infrastructure will drive the growth toward 2030.
- India: Battery electric buses will increase penetration in India due to Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME) incentives, competitive original equipment manufacturer products, and a drop in acquisition prices while battery prices decrease.